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Economic Comentary
Keeping America Great: Warren Buffet and Bills Gates
I had the pleasure watching another great CNBC special last night: Keeping America Great. If you missed it, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates took questions at Columbia University. CNBC will be re-airing the show on November 15 at 10:00 pm, November 16 at 8:00 pm, November 23 at 8:00 pm, and November 27 at 2:00 pm. If you missed it, you’ll defintiely want to watch it when it re-airs.
We all admire Warren Buffet and all wonder where he got his investing acumnen. In this interview, he discusses how Benjamin Graham, author of The Intelligent Investor, was an influence on him. The Intelligent Investor
is Warren Buffet’s bible.
Peter Schiff weighs in on the Stimulus
If you’ve been a reader of the site, you’ve probably seen a lot of coverage of economist Peter Schiff. Schiff feels that the proposed stimulus will only make this recession much worse, which will lead to a hyperinflationary depression. If the government does nothing, we know the economy will get much worse, but many people think the stimulus can only help the economy. Schiff, however, feels the stimulus will only make matters worse, much worse.
Schiff raises the notion that we’ve been living in a phony economy based on borrowing and spending and now we have to live with the consequences of the lack of financial discipline we’ve had. Schiff points out that the free market is telling us to stop consumption and spending because the only way real wealth can be built is through saving. Schiff states that we have to allow the current economy to collapse since it’s been phony and replace it with a viable economy.
Watch this video:
Keeing an eye on the auto bailout
I still don’t know how I feel about the auto bailout. If you let them go under, millions of jobs will be lost, which is obviously devastating, but if you give them $25 billion, you better make sure that they will be successful. The question is whether the U.S. auto industry can make a turnaround. I’m not very optimistic that they can. Not too many companies are successful when they’re the third best at something. The bottom line is that U.S. auto companies cannot compete with German and Japanese cars. The only market that the U.S. auto industry had a firm grip on was pickup trucks and now Toyota and Nissan are beating them at their own game. The U.S. auto industry is in big trouble. To borrow a quote from Stock Hustler, bailing out the auto industry with $25 billion is like putting a band aide on a gun-shot wound. I’m just in awe of how the top officers of these companies let things get this bad. Do they even have their MBA?
Here is what’s in the news:
Detroit bailout: 7 key questions
Congress making stricter demands for auto bailout
US Senate minority leader criticizes bailout
“There’s no reason to throw money at a problem that’s not going to get solved, ” Kyl told reporters on Capitol Hill.
Senator rips auto industry executives
In other news:
Paulson and Bernanke are saying the $700 billion bank rescue plan is working
The demand for gold is going up. I recently wrote on how it is a good idea to have 10% of your portfolio in gold to hedge against inflation. It looks like people are catching on to this. Gold is a great investment in times of economic uncertainty.
The Economy: Is There Hope?
There was a segment on CNBC today that turned away from the normal doom and gloom of the market as of late. Click here to watch the video. The panel discussed whether the market has hit bottom and whether it will turn around.
Komal Sri Kumar said that he expects a turn around in the economy by the middle of next year. He supported his position by saying that there will be a monetary stimulus, which will show its effects 12 months down the road. He also said the price of gold indicates that the rate of inflation is minimal. Additionally, the current price of stocks already reflect the terrible fourth-quarter prices that investors are expecting.
Neil Hennessy added that the stock prices compared to their sales indicates that some stocks are severely undervalued. Stocks like Johnson and Johsnon (JNJ) and Kraft (KFT) shouldn’t see their price going down this much based on their sales.
The downfall of the market is mostly due to deleveraging and there’s just too much fear in the market.
Ron Paul Lays The Smack-Down On U.S. Monetary Policy
Ron Paul pretty much sums up everything I discussed in my last article on what inflation is doing to the U.S. This video was added in December 2007 and it’s pretty obvious why our economy is a deep recession right now. Notice how the Dow was above 13,000 at this time and is now below 9,000.
“Inflation is alive and well. It’s going up 20% per annum. This just makes the dollar weaker. The real deception is when we distort the value of money. When we create money out of it out of thin air.” – Ron Paul
“Ron Paul is the only one I’ve seen in American politics that seems to have a clue with what’s going on in the world…” – Jim Rodgers, Economic Author
Here is another video of Ron Paul making a lot of sense.
Why didn’t this guy get the Republican ticket? (Version 2)
Here is Ron Paul’s two cents on Obama.
Maybe he could have won and could help fix the economy.
Ron Paul 2012: Making sense since 1976.
I’ll have to borrow a joke from Joe Biden. What are the three things that Ron Paul mentions in a sentence? A noun, a verb, and the Constitution!
Hedging Against Inflation With Gold
What you need to know about inflation:
At one time, all the currency in the United States was backed by gold and silver. This meant that the price of the dollar directly reflected the price of gold. Back then, our money was literally “as good as gold.” The Federal Reserve was then created in 1913 and our currency was no longer backed by the gold standard. If we went back to the gold standard, one dollar today would be worth two cents in 1919 or one cent in 1870.
Our country currently has a $10 trillion debt. Most of this money has been borrowed from foreign countries such as China. Since our country is having difficulty paying these countries back, these countries are becoming more hesitant to lend us money. This is causing the Federal Reserve to print more and more money for the government to use for things such as an “economic stimulus package.” This means that more money is in circulation. More money in circulation means that the value of the dollars that you currently have goes down. Since the value of money goes down, the cost of goods go up. Since the cost of goods goes up, your purchasing power goes down.
In fact, if want to see how inflation works in your every day life, just look at how the price of your groceries has increased from 2006 to 2008. You wouldn’t be surprised to see the price of goods such as rice, pasta, meat, milk, and eggs increase by 50-80%. This isn’t solely due to inflation since the global supply and demand also impacts these prices, but the prices of these goods also reflects inflation.
Well, if inflation hurts the ordinary consumer, why does the U.S. continue to print absurd amounts of money? If you’re a debtor, inflation is good. You want inflation as a debtor. If you owe $10 trillion, you want the value of the dollar to go down so you don’t have to pay as much back and then the price of inflation can be passed onto you, the consumer and taxpayer.
Should I protect my wealth by buying gold?
Currently, the price of gold is $735 per ounce. From 1990-2005 the value of the gold did not go above $450 per ounce and averaged approximately $350 per ounce. When inflation increased from 2005-2008, it’s no surprise that the price of gold skyrocketed because the dollar was losing value. The price of gold nearly hit $1,000 in July and traded at around $900 throughout October.
Peter Schiff has boldly predicted that the price of gold will be $2,000 at the end of 2009 and half-jokingly said that it may be $5,000 by 2012. This doesn’t mean that the value of gold is going up, but should be seen as the value of the dollar going down. This video is a great lecture on the decline of the dollar.
I suggest that you listen to Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital. He predicted the deep U.S. recession of late 2008 in August 2006. Schiff is now suggesting to buy gold, as it’s value could double due to the declining dollar. I also think it’s a very good idea to protect some of your savings and invest in gold in order to hedge against inflation. I’m not saying convert your entire savings to gold, but having gold when the dollar takes a dive seems like a good decision. Schiff has said that “it’s impossible for the value of the dollar to go up.” If you want to invest in gold, you’re basically betting that the value of the dollar will go down due to inflation, which seems like an incredibly likely scenario at the rate the Federal Reserve is printing money.
Before you decide to invest in gold, please conduct some independent research. Stock Hustler also has some great information on the topic.
Here is an article that explores the relationship between the price of gold and oil.
This article got a good debate going on whether to buy gold right now or if this recent surge in gold is just a bubble like everything else has been. The consensus: nobody knows for sure where gold is going, the price of gold is just as volatile as everything else, and if you want to get into gold, it should be about 10% of your portfolio to hedge against inflation.
Great article on how banks deciding to lend will affect inflation, thus affecting gold. If banks continue to lend, inflation will occur, but if banks sit on their money, deflation may occur.
The strengthening dollar? This article got a nice debate going on just how valuable the dollar really is.
Taxing The “Evil” Corporations 101
Congratulations to Barack Obama. I just can’t wait to see what kind of “change” he is talking about. I can only hope that he can be a moderate president and not the radical left politician that he has appeared to be. Now onto a simple economic lesson on what Obama’s tax plan will do.
Corporations are the backbone of this nation’s economy. Many people don’t even know how corporate taxation works, so I’ll give you a basic example so you can understand the intricacies of corporate taxation.
What many people don’t know is that corporations are subject to double taxation. This means that corporate earnings are taxed at the corporate level and then taxed again at the individual level. I’m going to use an example to demonstrate this.
Corporation X earns $100 million of net income after it takes the appropriate tax deductions for its expenses. Currently, the highest marginal tax rate for a corporation is 35%. Since we have a tax bracket system, a corporation’s first $50,000 earned is taxed at 15%, earnings $50,000-$75,000 are taxed at 25%, so on and so forth, and then you work up to earnings over $300,000. Once you hit the $300,000 mark, your taxes will be roughly 35%. Currently, all earnings over $18.33 million are taxed at a rate of 35%. For reference, the highest corporate tax rate in the United Kingdom is 28%, which means our rate is already pretty high.
President Obama is seeking to raise the highest marginal tax rate to the levels they were before the Bush tax cuts. This would mean the highest corporate tax rate would be 39.6%. That’s less than a 5% increase, so it doesn’t seem all that bad, but that’s still extremely high compared to the rest of the world, and this is without taking into consideration the taxation of dividends — distributions to shareholders of a corporation.
As I mentioned before, corporations have a “dual layer” of tax. For the purposes of demonstration, a corporation that earns $100 million of net income after deductions will pay $35 million in tax. The corporation would have $65 million left. They could reinvest this amount into the company in order to hire new employees, advertise, or invest in research and development. They could also distribute this to their shareholders. If there are 100 million shares, the corporation could say, of this $65 million, we want to give $50 million back to our shareholders and we’ll reinvest the remaining $15 million back into the company. The company would then declare a $0.50 dividend, so if you own 1,000 shares, you would get $500 just for owning stock.
Under the current tax structure, dividends are taxed at 15% so of this $500 distribution, $75 would be tax to the federal government. Therefore, the total $50 million distribution will result in another $7.5 million in tax revenue in addition to the $35 million that was already collected by the IRS. Thus, as you can see, the government already gets $42.5 million of that $100 million earned in this example under the “low” Bush tax cuts.
Obama could raise the dividends tax upward to 40%, although he’s stated at other times that he will just raise the dividends tax from 15% to 20%. If corporate earnings are taxed at a rate of 39.6% and then dividends are taxed a second time at 40% after those earnings have already been taxed a first time at 39.6%, it would have a crushing effect on the market. Who would want to invest in an already volatile market during a recession when the return on their investment is taxed at these utterly insane rates? And that’s all without taking the capital gains tax into consideration, which Obama wants to raise from 15% to 28%.
In our example, under Obama’s tax plan, the $100 million that Corporation X earned, $39.6 million would be taxed at the corporate level and $10 million would be taxed at the individual level with a 20% dividends tax rate, thus resulting in $49.6 million in taxes. At a 40% dividends tax, $59.6 million of the $100 million would be taxed. If you think corporations will continue to produce when they’re making 40 cents on the dollar, you are sadly mistaken. Under the “low” Bush tax structure, corporations are still only making 57.5 cents on the dollar.
To put things in perspective, if this corporation were located in the United Kingdom, where the corporate tax rate is 28% and dividends tax is 10%, this corporation would be taxed only $33 million instead of the $49.6-59.6 million that Obama is proposing. Does anyone else think we’ll see corporations flock overseas under Obama’s tax plan? I do.
Obama, please do not raise taxes at ridiculous levels if you want this economy to survive. I can only hope that you surround yourself with good advisers.
Or this just about sums it all up in a 1:00 minute YouTube video.

Ron Paul’s Federal Reserve Audit Bill Passes House Financial Committee
The House Financial Committee approved a bill that would allow Congress to audit the Federal Reserve. The measure was approved by a 43 to 26 vote and could be up for a vote in the House by December 1. 309 House members are already on board with the bill. The bill has been met with opposition of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who claim that the bill would hinder The Fed’s “independence.”
The Fed is saying that by becoming “more transparent” to the American public, institutions would be afraid to borrow from The Fed since they will be seen as “troubled firms,” which will only make the economic situation worse. Ron Paul, the leader of the Federal Reserve Audit Bill, made the following comments about the proposed legislation:
Warren Buffett recently spoke out about the pending legislation and is opposed to the bill. Buffett says that curbing the Fed’s independence would lead to a lot of “mischief.”